China´s Missile Innovations - The Next Level

From our latest report about PLA´s Buildup for War.

Over recent years, China's People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) has expanded, modernized, and diversified its missile arsenal significantly. Its new missile technologies are among the best in the world at this time, and with them, China is now capable of targeting its adversaries with advanced conventional and nuclear strikes, while also intensifying threat scenarios for capitals and cities in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East as well and across most of Northern America and bypass traditional terrestrial missile tracking capabilities.


Nuclear Capabilities

• Rapid Expansion:
  China’s nuclear arsenal has grown more rapidly than any other country over the last 2 years, with the Department of Defense estimating more than 600 operational nuclear warheads today — up from around 500 in 2023. It is a growth that is expected to continue, with indications it could exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. To contextualize: China's arsenal yet remains significantly smaller than those of the United States and Russia with each over 5,000 warheads.

• Advanced Diverse Systems:
  The PLA is developing more diverse nuclear strike capabilities: Low-yield precision strike warheads Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with multi-megaton yields Hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) with potential nuclear capability
  
  The growing diversity of types and capabilities of Chinese nuclear forces compounds this challenge by giving the Chinese leadership a wider set of options across the escalation ladder.

Let´s take a look at one of its latest additions, a new generation of long-range missiles that became operational at the end of the 2010s which can target the whole world with conventional but also nuclear warheads:


DF-41 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile - DongFeng-41 (DF-41) / CSS-X-20:

• Mobility and Role: Road-mobile, rail-mobile, or silo-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Range: 12,000-15,000 km (potentially striking the continental U.S.)

• Warhead Type and Weight: Nuclear / 2,500 kg

• MIRV and Yield: Single 1 MT or 10 MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles: 20 or 90/150 KT which will cause significantly more damage than the historic Nagasaki bomb with 21 KT - not in a linear way though

• Guidance System/Accuracy: Inertial, GPS / 100-500m CEP

• Stages and Propellant: 3 Stages and Solid

• Estimated Units: 20+ Missile Innovations

The DF-41 has a range of 12,000-15,000 km, enabling it to target much of the continental U.S. It can carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) and is rail- or road mobile.


The PRC currently operates (estimates) the following numbers of launchers:

• Intercontinental Ballistic missiles (ICBMs): 500 launchers, comprising CSS-3 and various CSS-4 variants (5,500km+)

• Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs): CSS-18 series with 250 launchers, range of 3,000 to 5,500 kilometers, able to strike against regional adversaries.

• Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs): The CSS-5 series with 300 launchers with ranges of 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers.

• Short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs): The CSS-6, CSS-7 and CSS-11 series with 300 launchers with ranges from 300 to 1,000 km to conduct tactical strikes.

• Ground-Launched Cruise Missiles (GLCMs): Range beyond 1,500 kilometers; 150 launchers of the CJ-10 system: a fundamental element of China’s longer-range precision strike capability.
  

The Game-Changer: Fractional Orbital Bombardement System (FOBS):

The Pentagon also confirmed the PLA tested a hypersonic glide vehicle in July 2021 paired with an ICBM in a demonstration of a FOBS. The vehicle flew 40,000 kilometers (24,854 miles) in low-orbit space around the globe in about 100-plus minutes. An extra layer of challenges: In a nutshell, FOBS can evade anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems and terrestrial tracking by approaching targets from unexpected directions and performing significant maneuvers changing directions and altitude during the gliding phase. In detail: FOBS can approach targets from any direction, for example over the South Pole, which is less monitored than traditional ICBM routes.

• Low Orbital Path: FOBS typically operate at very low orbits (150 km altitude), making them harder to detect by radar systems.

• Unpredictable De-Orbiting: The system can de-orbit its payload at any point, obscuring the target location.

• Hypersonic Glide Vehicle Maneuverability: The addition of an HGV to the FOBS makes significant maneuvers during the gliding phase possible, changing direction and altitude making interception particularly difficult
  

Learn more about PLA's latest missile innovations and potential countermeasures in our free 23-page report on China's Military Buildup for War Pt. 1.