7 Problems with Maximum Pressure against Iran
While Trump´s Maximum Pressure Sanctions are a step in the right direction against the No. 1 regime worldwide that supports terrorist organizations targeting the US and Israel they fall short and don´t take sufficiently into account the changed realities since Trump introduced Maximum Pressure the first time almost 7 years ago.
1. Alignment with China and Russia
The first Maximum Pressure campaign that Trump introduced in 2018 has pushed Iran into closer alignment with China and Russia, which have profited from discounted oil purchases and investments in the Iranian energy sector. This alignment hobbles U.S. efforts to economically isolate Iran. There are hundreds of tankers working on Iran’s behalf similar to the Russian shadow fleet using ship-to-ship transfers of illicit Iranian oil from large vessels to smaller ships that are far off the radar. Iranian crude is mainly sold to independent refiners in Beijing.
2. Lack of Clear Objectives
Trump´s strategy lacks clear objectives and a coherent path forward, resulting in confusion about what the U.S. intends to accomplish by imposing these sanctions on a greater scale. Compared to the first Maximum Pressure Campaign introduced in 2018, today, an efficient alliance exists between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, an alliance that is stronger than ever. Every approach of the Trump administration has to look at Iran through the lens of its place and connections within this axis of autocrats, its strategy has to entail all countries involved.
3. Concealment of Oil and Money Flows
Cryptocurrencies conceal financial transactions. The use of cryptocurrencies makes it way more easy to disguise cash streams, so it isn't easy to detect where cash comes from and where it goes. And Iran had more than 6 years since the introduction of the last Maximum Pressure campaign to build up a global network of countries buying its oil and gas through a sophisticated network of proxies - i.e. third countries including the use of "ghost" ships.
4. Nuclear Bomb despite Sanctions
Iran can and will under the cloak of the Maximum Pressure continue to work on its nuclear weapon program and long-range ballistic missiles. Despite the sanctions, Iran has last time accelerated its nuclear program, increasing uranium enrichment levels and moving closer to the capability to build nuclear weapons. In January 2025, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Mariano Grossi warned that Iran was speeding up its efforts to gain highly enriched uranium saying that Iran currently possesses around 200 kg (roughly 440 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60 percent. A level that poses a serious proliferation risk because it can be quickly enriched to weapons-grade levels (90% U-235).
5. Biden´s Waivers
Several waivers during Biden´s administration flushed more than 16 billion USD in cash into Iran´s coffers - and tested the US approach, something that Trump will not turn backward without a stronger approach. These waivers included allowing Iraq to repay a debt to Iran through Oil-for-Gas Swaps and Refined Products Swap in 2023, paying a 6 billion US Dollar ransome in frozen South Korean assets in exchange for 5 U.S. hostages, and giving Iran access to $10B in frozen assets for humanitarian use. Especially the last sparked justified US and international criticism that despite the restrictions, Iran would divert these funds to support its military or proxy activities. In total, Iran might have sold $144 billion in petroleum products during the first three years of the Biden administration(2021 to 2023).
6. Regional Influence
Last time the strategy did not effectively curtail Iran's regional influence or its support for proxy groups as we could witness firsthand with the attack of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis against Israel and US forces in the Middle East. It has cost the US and Israel billions of dollars, countless lives, and all strength in fighting and destroying the leadership, military assets, bases, critical infrastructure, intelligence networks, and depots of these proxy organizations which continue to pose a threat to Israel´s peace, and regional stability.
7. Suspension of Foreign Aid
The suspension of U.S. foreign aid for dozens of countries around the world impacts trust and years of relationship building. Countries affected by the suspension include Syria, Pakistan, Taiwan, Liberia, Kenya, Uganda, Indonesia, Haiti, and Peru. This might just have significant implications for U.S. foreign policy objectives including driving countries closer to accepting investment, lending, partnerships, or deals with the China-Russia Iran-North Korea axis. So different foreign policy objectives by the Trump administration might cancel each other out or at least weaken each other. In this regard, objectives have also been measured in total terms of their impact on the overall containment of an axis that is actively working on a new world order.
Conclusion
It is not 2018 The containment strategy in 2018 centered on isolating Iran; these days, we need a more coordinated and holistic strategy that includes Iran’s deep relationships with the China-Iran-Russia-North-Korea-axis. Thus, any new Maximum Pressure strategy will need to be more than just about isolating Iran. It has to have deeper and more coordinated military, financial, intelligence, and diplomatic components, with bolstered partnerships in the region and the Global South. Countering Iran’s burgeoning influence and its widening narascope of allies and proxies requires a real 360-degree strategy.
