The Fall of the Assad Regime: Implications for Russia, Iran, and Turkey

The countries bordering Syria in clockwise order: Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, and Lebanon.

Syria is the price Russia and Iran are willing to pay for focusing on Ukraine and Israel respective rearming other proxies instead. It also shows that militaries cannot be overstretched and that multi-theater conflicts are a challenge that strong military actors still cannot afford.

Therefore, local factions can step in wherever a power vacuum exists, creating more uncalculatable situations.

While Iran's influence declines, Israel gains strategic leverage:
This offers a clear opportunity to limit Iran's regional ambitions and, as we have seen in the last few days, to actively destroy military equipment and weapon facilities that could fall into the hands of the rebels.

Turkey Strengthens Its Position:
Potential to have some of its more than 3 million Syrian refugees return home and take a more assertive stance as a regional power, which it has longed for some time.

Russia's Strategic Bases in Tartus and Khmeimim at Risk:
Russia will try to negotiate a new deal with whoever comes into power to keep its bases, which project power in the Mediterranean, South of Europe, and Northern Africa maybe by offering Assad in exchange for keeping access.

Overall, Assad's regime collapse is a significant blow to Russia's international standing and its ability to project power in the Middle East and Africa. The rapid end of the Assad regime has also exposed Russia's weakened capacity to support allies, which could impact its relationships with other global partners who are more cautious about leaning on Russia for military protection.

The rapid fall of Assad´s cruel terror regime also shows how interconnected conflicts and their parties are from Russia to Iran to Syria and Turkey and that both main global conflicts, the one between Russia and Ukraine and Iran and Israel, affect regional stability and global power dynamics in multiple ways - ways that a clear and ways that are yet unforeseeable with multiple interdependencies and influences.

One thing is for sure, developments in Syria in the coming months will be challenging for the region but also Europe. The end of the Assad's regime is no minor incident - and more instability in the region is most likely.