The war has to be prolonged at all costs: Putin's strategy

Putin's changing of some major roles around his war cabinet, especially appointing economist Andrei Belousov as Defence Minister and some relatives to high-ranking positions in his government, shows a paradigm shift and one that indicates three significant points:

I. It shows there are powers and forces around Putin that are or could have been potentially threatening to his leadership and his person. This increased risk from within has to do with two developments on the ground:

- a slowing of land wins and the high attrition of weaponry, as well as a general war of attrition with land wins in the centimeters per day

- the breakthrough in financing and building stronger NATO alliances will likely cause a prolonged war

- Tactical nuclear options are more seriously considered for the more extreme forces in Russia. Whereas Putin, until now, keeps threatening but doesn't want to change Russia's nuclear doctrine not to provoke even more. Nevertheless, and to add a bit to a more complex picture, leaked Russian military files have revealed that Russian forces have rehearsed using tactical nuclear weapons early in a conflict with a significant world power, according to a Financial Times report in February 2024 based on classified documents by Russia. Based on these documents, the threshold of a tactical nuclear strike is lower than Russia has ever publically admitted.

II.  The second issue is economic. Since Russia is running out of military equipment, with estimates for tanks running from the end of the year to 1-2 years depending on the usability of decommissioned and partially modernized tanks, the war has to be prolonged with economic sensitivity. Because the shift to a military industry is hard to reverse without Putin's significant financial and political decline. Keeping the war going as long as possible and possibly shifting it to a war against a NATO member in 3-5 years makes Putin undisputable and helps shape his legacy further—the legacy he wants.

III.  Finally and maybe the most important reason: The longer the wars continue, the better for Putin, whose power rotates around the war against Ukraine and the West. With the war and the Feindbild, he secured his power and, last but not least, is seeking to build up his historical legacy.

What does that mean for the rest of Europe and global stability? The potential risks for international stability and the peace process are significant, and it's crucial to understand the implications of Putin's strategy.

With the leadership of even more loyal followers, such as closer allies and relatives, and the threat of a decision that is even less questioned as it was already and further isolation of Putin poses risks of a decision that potentially can first make any peace process even less likely. The potential use of tactical nuclear weapons is becoming more likely, a decision that no military expertise could question since the leading experts in the military have been taken out of the game by Putin, further escalating the situation.